In the article a few days ago titled - Foreclosures smack home prices - down 29.3%, you should find a silver lining if you read it. (please click title link.)
The key part here is what Rosen (well known and respected for his thoughts on the housing market) had to say -
"In 18 months, prices will go up 3 to 5 percent. The DataQuick median series will show a big jump when the foreclosures stop; it will look like they go up 15 to 20 percent. That's not because house prices will have surged but because the data won't have all these foreclosures."
So, it won't be a lot, according to Rosen, but things should be geared to go up 3-5% in about 18 months. Where is that according to the election year/change of presidency?
My thoughts? I've seen some areas in San Francisco go down, but I've definitely seen some go up. (Condos seem to be doing pretty well... the areas Bernal and Mission, etc.) A lot of people say that two years from now, many mortgages are geared to change again as a wave of fixed APRs become variables, and that will surely lead to another crisis. Though, I'm hoping and positively thinking that my buddies at Freddie... and the government, let's say the next president... will get in line some new measures to adequately address these issues. In that case, Mr. Rosen should be on the right track.
Either way, I worry for my clients (the buyers) that they will miss the bottom of the market slope waiting for things to get worse... and one day they will realize that prices are up again and staying that way. I cannot foretell the future, and I don't know when that time will be. ...but please watch carefully and make sure not to miss the down slope if that's what you're going for!
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Monday, August 18, 2008
Archived News from my website
So, I have decided to try and replace the current real estate news layout on my website with this blog site. So, here's the history of articles that I have had on my website before the new blog layout. Some links, I've noticed, don't work anymore. My bad.
Neighborhood News:
The Reverse Graffiti Project in San Francisco
"Doug Pray made a great video about Paul Curtis (aka Moose) working on an installation for his Reverse Graffiti Project where he created environmentally clean street art by removing dirt and grime from walls of San Francisco’s Broadway Tunnel. The project was a promo for Green Works plant based cleaning products..." more info
Real Estate:
So, here's an interesting link to the CAR (California Association of Realtors) official stance on props 98 and 99. I'm not saying this is my view. I'm torn on the subject of rent control, and don't think that eminent domain should be mis-used.
Oops! Bank Mistakenly Starts Foreclosure Process On Wrong House.
"KISSIMMEE, Fla. -- A homeowner was in England when he learned a Florida bank had mistakenly started foreclosure proceedings on his house..." more info (BTW, I've seen this happen in Excelsior.)
USA-wide:
Gay Marriage: where to now?
"In November, California voters will vote on marriage again. Prior to last week's one-vote majority decision, support for the marriage amendment led the opposition by less than 10%..." more info
Worldwide:
UAE oil minister says price spikes "crazy"
"...the OPEC member would be pleased to join in a meeting with oil-consuming countries to discuss runaway prices because they are hurting economies, Mohammed al Hamli said. Saudi Arabia will host such a gathering later this month..." more info
New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement
"...New Zealand is the first developed country to negotiate a free trade agreement with China.Securing preferential access to China's economy has the potential to deliver significant gains to our exporters. It is the fastest growing major economy, currently growing at 9.5 percent per annum..." more info
Neighborhood News:
3 S.F. public housing areas getting rebuilt
"Three more decrepit San Francisco public housing developments will be refashioned into denser neighborhoods that include some market-rate housing, under a new agreement between the Housing Authority and construction companies that say they're up for the job..." more info
Fire in Mission - nearly a block is evacuated. About 60 people flee homes - Dovre Club patrons chased out
"A fast-moving fire that began in a Mission District apartment building spread to an adjoining building and prompted the evacuation of nearly an entire San Francisco block Monday night..." more info
Bike share: Transit’s future in S.F.?
"SAN FRANCISCO (Map, News) - They may not be high-end racing bikes, but the bicycles unveiled Tuesday during a Municipal Transportation Agency board meeting were still a welcome sight to proponents of a citywide bike-sharing program..." more info
Gamed by the System Wherein Willie Brown details his valiant attempts to conquer homelessness and bring Muni into submission
"The following is excerpted from "Basic Brown: My Life and Our Times" by Willie Brown, which publishes Feb. 5, the date of the California primary. Gleaned from three years of intense conversation between Willie Brown and former Examiner columnist P.J. Corkery, it seems a realistic portrayal of our former mayor ..." more info
Is New College dying? The famed liberal arts school faces a financial crisis after a tough year
After a turbulent year in which its accreditation was suspended and school president Martin Hamilton reluctantly resigned, New College of California is in dire financial straits. Some even fear that the innovative liberal arts institution — whose central campus at 777 Valencia Street once housed a mortuary before the school was founded there 40 years ago — could be in its death throes. New College has experienced a 41 percent decrease in enrollment this year, seeing its population drop to fewer than 500 students...." more info
Real Estate:
Home Buyer's Fair ...if you plan on being in LA April 12-13th.....
http://www.homebuyersfair.com/
Wall Street Journal on Conforming Loan Changes
"One of the features of the economic stimulus package fashioned yesterday by Congress and the Bush administration would provide guarantees to more - - and much larger - - mortgages in an effort to boost the housing market. But it also would exposee the nation's two government-sponsored mortgage companies to greater credit risk..." more info
S.F supervisor vies to protect industrial land
" As land zoned for San Francisco's blue-collar business dwindles, one of the city's most influential supervisors on real estate issues is seeking protection for industrial property across a wide swath of the city..." more info
Ghirardelli Square hotel/vacation shares.
Designed like time shares, Fairmont Heritage Place offers an alternative to expensive and less spacious luxury hotel room while conveying real estate ownership in an exotic and valuable location..." Fairmont Heritage website/more info
TIC loan record: Spotless
"With defaults rising like the tide and cresting in foreclosures, the blame has often focused on lenders who took chances with "creative" loan products. But there's one kind of home loan that is reporting a virtually perfect record. No defaults, no foreclosures and, according to some experts, not so much as a late payment..." more info
Imagine San Francisco without rent control
"OPINION If you think the mortgage foreclosure crisis is big, imagine what would happen to San Francisco if rent control were repealed.With 180,000 rent-controlled apartments currently housing more than 350,000 San Franciscans, the end of rent control would be disastrous. Literally hundreds of thousands would be forced from their homes and forced to leave the city... The Save Rent Control Convention will be Jan. 19, 1–4 p.m., at Centro del Pueblo, 474 Valencia (at 16th St.), SF. For more information on the rent control repeal measure, see www.saverentcontrol.net or www.sftu.org. For more information, call (415) 282-5525...." more info
U.S. mortgage rates tumble. Fixed-rate mortgages at lowest in almost four years
"Mortgage rates for fixed-rate loans sank to their lowest levels in nearly four years, pushed downward by further evidence of weakness in the housing market and by an emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac's chief economist said on Thursday..." more info
As upscale home complexes add great chefs, more buyers are biting
"The great chefs of San Francisco are selling real estate. No, they haven't all gotten their broker's licenses. And they're not participating in some strange reality TV show. They're opening restaurants in San Francisco's newest luxury residential complexes. And their cachet is bringing in buyers...." more info
Statewide:
State Senate committee kills health care bill
"Members of a state Senate committee voted overwhelmingly today to kill a sweeping overhaul of the California health care system that aimed to provide coverage to millions of uninsured residents..." more info
Citizens vs. spies
"San Francisco is at the center of a national debate over government and corporate surveillance of US residents
A Bay Area man and a San Francisco nonprofit are at the center of an epic, ongoing battle over privacy rights involving all three branches of the United States government. The outcome may determine the lines between national security and personal liberties in the 21st century..." more info
Schwarzenegger says he will declare fiscal emergency
"Schwarzenegger on Friday said he would declare a fiscal emergency in California so he and state lawmakers can start cutting programs before shrinking tax revenue from the collapsed housing market leaves the state with up to a $14 billion shortfall over the next year-and-a-half...." more info
USA-wide:
Sunday Night Special: The Bear Stearns Blowup (And Balance Sheets)
"From a market capitalization of over $10.8 billion last month ($20.2 billion last year), to $3.6 billion on Friday, to an implied $240 million today, roughly $10.5 billion in Bear Stearns’ shareholder equity has evaporated over the past six weeks..." more info
Obama wins primaries clean sweep Barack Obama has won the Democratic primary polls in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia by wide margins, according to partial results..." more info
The following is not a news article, it is a letter I received from Ms. Boxer in response to an email I wrote her, asking that she please keep the conforming loan section in the Economic stimulus package. (There was rumor this might be dropped.) Here is her response - click here.
Stimulus: Pay bills? Get a flat-panel?
"Is an extra $800 in your pocket enough to change the course of the ailing economy? President Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and members of Congress seem to think so. Washington is talking about issuing tax rebate checks in hopes of staving off a recession..." more info
Fed Loans Banks $20 Billion
"Cash-strapped banks took the Federal Reserve up on its offer of $20 billion in short-term loans to help them overcome credit problems, but the interest rate wasn't as low as some had hoped...." more info
Worldwide:
Spielberg boycotts Olympic role
"US film director Steven Spielberg has withdrawn as an artistic adviser to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing..." more info
CIA Blames Islamic Militants for Bhutto's Death; Pakistan Steps Up Security
"The CIA has blamed al Qaida-linked militants operating in Pakistan's mountainous tribal region for the assassination last month of former Prime Minister and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. VOA's Nancy-Amelia Collins reports from Islamabad the Pakistani government is tightening security around the country to thwart militant attacks..." more info
Biggest Building Coming to Moscow
"Moscow's rapidly growing skyline will soon feature a new addition: Crystal Island, which will be the world's biggest building when completed." Featuring Green Designs more info
Bitten by Blackstone, China Wants Interest This Time
"Is China getting more savvy with its Wall Street deals?When the country’s investment arm took a $3 billion stake in Blackstone Group in June, it essentially bought straight stock at a slight discount, with the voting rights stripped out. That stock promptly fell after the private equity firm went public and the credit markets seized up, leaving China with a paper loss of more than $600 million, based on recent prices. Not a fun way to start a foray into high finance.With Wednesday’s investment in Morgan Stanley, however, the China Investment Corporation is taking a different and more complex approach...." more info
Neighborhood News:
The Reverse Graffiti Project in San Francisco
"Doug Pray made a great video about Paul Curtis (aka Moose) working on an installation for his Reverse Graffiti Project where he created environmentally clean street art by removing dirt and grime from walls of San Francisco’s Broadway Tunnel. The project was a promo for Green Works plant based cleaning products..." more info
Real Estate:
So, here's an interesting link to the CAR (California Association of Realtors) official stance on props 98 and 99. I'm not saying this is my view. I'm torn on the subject of rent control, and don't think that eminent domain should be mis-used.
Oops! Bank Mistakenly Starts Foreclosure Process On Wrong House.
"KISSIMMEE, Fla. -- A homeowner was in England when he learned a Florida bank had mistakenly started foreclosure proceedings on his house..." more info (BTW, I've seen this happen in Excelsior.)
USA-wide:
Gay Marriage: where to now?
"In November, California voters will vote on marriage again. Prior to last week's one-vote majority decision, support for the marriage amendment led the opposition by less than 10%..." more info
Worldwide:
UAE oil minister says price spikes "crazy"
"...the OPEC member would be pleased to join in a meeting with oil-consuming countries to discuss runaway prices because they are hurting economies, Mohammed al Hamli said. Saudi Arabia will host such a gathering later this month..." more info
New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement
"...New Zealand is the first developed country to negotiate a free trade agreement with China.Securing preferential access to China's economy has the potential to deliver significant gains to our exporters. It is the fastest growing major economy, currently growing at 9.5 percent per annum..." more info
Neighborhood News:
3 S.F. public housing areas getting rebuilt
"Three more decrepit San Francisco public housing developments will be refashioned into denser neighborhoods that include some market-rate housing, under a new agreement between the Housing Authority and construction companies that say they're up for the job..." more info
Fire in Mission - nearly a block is evacuated. About 60 people flee homes - Dovre Club patrons chased out
"A fast-moving fire that began in a Mission District apartment building spread to an adjoining building and prompted the evacuation of nearly an entire San Francisco block Monday night..." more info
Bike share: Transit’s future in S.F.?
"SAN FRANCISCO (Map, News) - They may not be high-end racing bikes, but the bicycles unveiled Tuesday during a Municipal Transportation Agency board meeting were still a welcome sight to proponents of a citywide bike-sharing program..." more info
Gamed by the System Wherein Willie Brown details his valiant attempts to conquer homelessness and bring Muni into submission
"The following is excerpted from "Basic Brown: My Life and Our Times" by Willie Brown, which publishes Feb. 5, the date of the California primary. Gleaned from three years of intense conversation between Willie Brown and former Examiner columnist P.J. Corkery, it seems a realistic portrayal of our former mayor ..." more info
Is New College dying? The famed liberal arts school faces a financial crisis after a tough year
After a turbulent year in which its accreditation was suspended and school president Martin Hamilton reluctantly resigned, New College of California is in dire financial straits. Some even fear that the innovative liberal arts institution — whose central campus at 777 Valencia Street once housed a mortuary before the school was founded there 40 years ago — could be in its death throes. New College has experienced a 41 percent decrease in enrollment this year, seeing its population drop to fewer than 500 students...." more info
Real Estate:
Home Buyer's Fair ...if you plan on being in LA April 12-13th.....
http://www.homebuyersfair.com/
Wall Street Journal on Conforming Loan Changes
"One of the features of the economic stimulus package fashioned yesterday by Congress and the Bush administration would provide guarantees to more - - and much larger - - mortgages in an effort to boost the housing market. But it also would exposee the nation's two government-sponsored mortgage companies to greater credit risk..." more info
S.F supervisor vies to protect industrial land
" As land zoned for San Francisco's blue-collar business dwindles, one of the city's most influential supervisors on real estate issues is seeking protection for industrial property across a wide swath of the city..." more info
Ghirardelli Square hotel/vacation shares.
Designed like time shares, Fairmont Heritage Place offers an alternative to expensive and less spacious luxury hotel room while conveying real estate ownership in an exotic and valuable location..." Fairmont Heritage website/more info
TIC loan record: Spotless
"With defaults rising like the tide and cresting in foreclosures, the blame has often focused on lenders who took chances with "creative" loan products. But there's one kind of home loan that is reporting a virtually perfect record. No defaults, no foreclosures and, according to some experts, not so much as a late payment..." more info
Imagine San Francisco without rent control
"OPINION If you think the mortgage foreclosure crisis is big, imagine what would happen to San Francisco if rent control were repealed.With 180,000 rent-controlled apartments currently housing more than 350,000 San Franciscans, the end of rent control would be disastrous. Literally hundreds of thousands would be forced from their homes and forced to leave the city... The Save Rent Control Convention will be Jan. 19, 1–4 p.m., at Centro del Pueblo, 474 Valencia (at 16th St.), SF. For more information on the rent control repeal measure, see www.saverentcontrol.net or www.sftu.org. For more information, call (415) 282-5525...." more info
U.S. mortgage rates tumble. Fixed-rate mortgages at lowest in almost four years
"Mortgage rates for fixed-rate loans sank to their lowest levels in nearly four years, pushed downward by further evidence of weakness in the housing market and by an emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac's chief economist said on Thursday..." more info
As upscale home complexes add great chefs, more buyers are biting
"The great chefs of San Francisco are selling real estate. No, they haven't all gotten their broker's licenses. And they're not participating in some strange reality TV show. They're opening restaurants in San Francisco's newest luxury residential complexes. And their cachet is bringing in buyers...." more info
Statewide:
State Senate committee kills health care bill
"Members of a state Senate committee voted overwhelmingly today to kill a sweeping overhaul of the California health care system that aimed to provide coverage to millions of uninsured residents..." more info
Citizens vs. spies
"San Francisco is at the center of a national debate over government and corporate surveillance of US residents
A Bay Area man and a San Francisco nonprofit are at the center of an epic, ongoing battle over privacy rights involving all three branches of the United States government. The outcome may determine the lines between national security and personal liberties in the 21st century..." more info
Schwarzenegger says he will declare fiscal emergency
"Schwarzenegger on Friday said he would declare a fiscal emergency in California so he and state lawmakers can start cutting programs before shrinking tax revenue from the collapsed housing market leaves the state with up to a $14 billion shortfall over the next year-and-a-half...." more info
USA-wide:
Sunday Night Special: The Bear Stearns Blowup (And Balance Sheets)
"From a market capitalization of over $10.8 billion last month ($20.2 billion last year), to $3.6 billion on Friday, to an implied $240 million today, roughly $10.5 billion in Bear Stearns’ shareholder equity has evaporated over the past six weeks..." more info
Obama wins primaries clean sweep Barack Obama has won the Democratic primary polls in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia by wide margins, according to partial results..." more info
The following is not a news article, it is a letter I received from Ms. Boxer in response to an email I wrote her, asking that she please keep the conforming loan section in the Economic stimulus package. (There was rumor this might be dropped.) Here is her response - click here.
Stimulus: Pay bills? Get a flat-panel?
"Is an extra $800 in your pocket enough to change the course of the ailing economy? President Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and members of Congress seem to think so. Washington is talking about issuing tax rebate checks in hopes of staving off a recession..." more info
Fed Loans Banks $20 Billion
"Cash-strapped banks took the Federal Reserve up on its offer of $20 billion in short-term loans to help them overcome credit problems, but the interest rate wasn't as low as some had hoped...." more info
Worldwide:
Spielberg boycotts Olympic role
"US film director Steven Spielberg has withdrawn as an artistic adviser to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing..." more info
CIA Blames Islamic Militants for Bhutto's Death; Pakistan Steps Up Security
"The CIA has blamed al Qaida-linked militants operating in Pakistan's mountainous tribal region for the assassination last month of former Prime Minister and opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. VOA's Nancy-Amelia Collins reports from Islamabad the Pakistani government is tightening security around the country to thwart militant attacks..." more info
Biggest Building Coming to Moscow
"Moscow's rapidly growing skyline will soon feature a new addition: Crystal Island, which will be the world's biggest building when completed." Featuring Green Designs more info
Bitten by Blackstone, China Wants Interest This Time
"Is China getting more savvy with its Wall Street deals?When the country’s investment arm took a $3 billion stake in Blackstone Group in June, it essentially bought straight stock at a slight discount, with the voting rights stripped out. That stock promptly fell after the private equity firm went public and the credit markets seized up, leaving China with a paper loss of more than $600 million, based on recent prices. Not a fun way to start a foray into high finance.With Wednesday’s investment in Morgan Stanley, however, the China Investment Corporation is taking a different and more complex approach...." more info
Friday, August 8, 2008
The Privilege of Sitting in Traffic
aaahhh yes. ... shortly San Francisco may add a toll for driving in our city.
There are different options to how the toll might shape up:
There are different options to how the toll might shape up:
- General toll for entering San Francisco (bridge tolls will still be in affect)
- Toll for driving during heavy traffic in the "most congested" parts of San Francisco (defined by Van Ness Avenue, Harrison Street, the Embarcadero and Broadway Street ...though there's some debate on what areas might actually be considered congested. The areas around Geary and California have been looked at as well). With this toll for driving in congested areas, there's talk of a flat fee, or a per mile fee. Residents of the "most congested" area and low income individuals may qualify for up to an 80% discount.
...and the plan that will probably make people the most upset.... - a double toll. Yes, you may be charged to enter San Francisco ...and then charged the whole time you're actually driving in San Francisco.
Admittedly (and I hate admitting this because I don't want to get charged either!), I see the logic in a San Francisco toll. It has worked for many major cities. Also, it will undoubtedly decrease the amount of gas consumed in San Francisco, which will be great for the environment!
As someone who likes to look at how delivery affects mood, it seems that option 3 is not the way to go. Yes, there is the potential for more money involved...but that's not why option 3 should be ruled out. It should be ruled out because people get annoyed when they're nickel and dimed. They like to know what they're getting into and agree to it upfront. People will probably react the happiest if the fee was an entrance toll (option 1) ....even if the toll was way more likely to cost them more than the double toll.
see for more info - http://www.examiner.com/a-1500889~City__gateway_toll__considered.html
Monday, August 4, 2008
Everyone likes statistics .... right? :D
I'm not sure how many of you know this, so I'm putting it out there on a blog...
I have access to a program called Agent Metrics. It allows me to work with all of the data on the San Francisco Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (SFARMLS) and see how it boils down statistics-wise. It is very helpful if you'd like a clear, unbiased perspective on how the San Francisco market is doing. For instance, have prices for a 2bd/1ba/1p condo in the Mission gone up or down this year? How many single family homes have sold in Noe Valley - at, over or under original listing price?
If you'd like to set up an appointment and check out the program with me, just let me know. ...It'll be fun! :)
I have access to a program called Agent Metrics. It allows me to work with all of the data on the San Francisco Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (SFARMLS) and see how it boils down statistics-wise. It is very helpful if you'd like a clear, unbiased perspective on how the San Francisco market is doing. For instance, have prices for a 2bd/1ba/1p condo in the Mission gone up or down this year? How many single family homes have sold in Noe Valley - at, over or under original listing price?
If you'd like to set up an appointment and check out the program with me, just let me know. ...It'll be fun! :)
Friday, August 1, 2008
This just in! - More info on the November ballot
I just received this email from a colleague -
Thanks Christian!
"Hello Everyone,
I have a client who is worried about this bill
passing before he decides to make a purchase. Like our job is not
difficult enough! I called Chris Daly’s office and they told me that it’s
“pending action sent to the Rules Committee.” Which means it has not gone
to vote yet. It needs 6 out of 11 supervisors to put it on the November
Ballet is what they said. It was supposed to vote a few weeks ago, I
believe. So there are delays.
Does anyone know any more
information? What is your take on this bill getting on the November
Ballet? I read the description and it will applied to 2 unit buildings
owner occupied as of Aug. 1, 2008.
Thanks everyone for your
opinions.
Christian"
Thanks Christian!
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